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Welcome to 2005's Inagural edition of Moneyline Picks. I apologize to those of you who have been checking this space in the previous three weeks, but I've been out on the road at games and a bit lax in publishing. So that said, let's take a look at what we have on the board this week. As always, if you are unfamiliar with what a Contrarian/MoneyLine pick is, or wonder why you might want to bet one, please take a look at this article as a primer: Contrarian Betting - Calling the Dog on the Moneyline Here's what we have on the moneyline as of my writing this article on Friday morning: Iowa +220 Ga Tech +350 Purdue +150 N'Western +250 Illinois +350 Boston College +120 Maryland +120 Temple +135 EMU +170 Kent +150 TCU +150 UNC +400 Washington +400 UCF +160 Wyoming +115 Akron +200 Wisky +125 SMU +150 Utah St +140 New Mexico +115 Oregon St +200 Fla Int +350 My first thought after a quick glance at these is that we have a bunch of crappy little lines. If you haven't been with us in the past here, I'll let you know now that I'm not a fan of betting any moneylines that are under 200 as I can't see the value in giving up the points for so little reward. And being that I'm writing a (sorta) weekly column on the games, there's no real fun in going for a "safe" +125 or +150. That all mentioned, here's what I like this week:
Iowa +220 Washington +400 Akron +200 Fla Intl +350 To be honest, none of these games are real high on my list, and other weeks have tended to give us a better selection, but being that this is what we have to deal with, let's take a look: Iowa is at Ohio State, the Bucks are 10-2-1 SU and 10-3 ATS v. Iowa and are likely looking to avenge that sad display they had last year in Iowa. (33-7 if you forgot.) As much as I think the Hawks are a good team, I have a hard time believing Ohio State is going to have a second letdown at the Shoe this season and I have to lean with te Bucks. Washington is not a team I'd normally call to upset the Irish, but all told, the Dogs are getting a solid 4/1 line here and there is a whole lot of "situation" going into this game. The Irish let go of Willingham last season and he knows the current players and staff. Add in the fact that UND is coming off a huge deflating loss at home against Michigan State and having no idea how they'll rebound under Weis. And finally incorporate that this game will likely be a sellout with rabid Husky fans trying to get the team up for the game and I think +400 ain't too bad. Akron is getting a solid 2/1 against NIU. NIU has played solid if unspectactular losing two games to Big Ten competition (Michigan, N'Western) while beating up 1AA Tenn Tech. Akron got smacked by Purdue, but did manage to beat a decent MTSU squad that is one of the better Sun Belt Teams. Obviously, a win over the Sun Belt is hardly cause for celebration, but Akron should have a shot with the game being at home. Florida International got spanked last week by TTU (56-3) but they played decent in week one against K-State only losing by 14. ASU lost to both Oklahoma St and Mizzou. They shelled 1AA UT-Martin. Not sure either team has that huge an advantage here that it warrants a +350 line, but I'll confess that I have yet to see either team on the field this year so my comments are based solely on box scores and reading articles on both teams. So with the above analysis, I think we'll have to call Washington our "Contrarian Pick of the Week" with the note that Akron and FIU only are a notch off. In all honesty, I might just drop some tiny bets on all four to keep things interesting for the weekend. Thanks for reading along and see you next week. |