Two weeks ago the Mid-American Conference championship game looked to be a lock. Bowling Green was on a collision course with Toledo.

Now, after Bowling Green's surprising loss last weekend, there's an interesting development as the season grows nearer to its conclusion:

If things fall right, there could be seven different teams knotted for the two division leads by the end of the weekend.

Want to see how? Follow along with me and you'll see.

First, Toledo (6-1, 4-0), the leaders in the West, face Central Michigan (4-3, 3-1), right now tied for second in the West. The Chippewas would need to win that game. Then, Northern Illinois (4-3, 3-1) would have to take care of business against Ball State (1-6, 1-3) to force a three-way tie. Now, in the East, Bowling Green (4-3, 3-1) still holds the lead, but that could change if they stumble again, this time to Akron (3-4, 2-2). A Zips victory, combined with an Ohio (3-4, 2-2) victory over Buffalo (0-7, 0-4 East), makes it a four-way tie. The fourth team would be Miami of Ohio (4-3, 3-2), which has a non-conference game against provisional MAC member Temple (0-8).

Whew. That's a lot of what ifs. Now let's separate fantasy from reality.

Reality — Miami of Ohio will beat Temple, if for no other reason than the Owls are on their way to a big, fat doughnut in the win column this season. Miami has Brandon Murphy, who is No. 19 in the nation in all-purpose yardage (149.14 ypg). I don't think the Owls have anyone that can stop him. Miami 35, Temple 10.

Reality — Ohio will beat Buffalo. Again, Buffalo, like Temple, is on its way to a winless season. One player should do Buffalo in — Ohio's Kalvin McRae. He rushed for 264 yards on 29 carries in last week's 38-21 win over Ball State. McRae's 264 rushing yards are the most in a single game in the nation this season. He was named the MAC East Division Offensive Player of the Week. McRae added one touchdown run as he became the first Ohio back to have two 200-yard rushing games in the same season since Arnold Welcher in 1975. Something tells me No. 3 is only is just a Saturday away. Ohio 37, Buffalo 14.

Reality — Northern Illinois will beat Ball State. Senior tailback Adrian Davis will see to that. He began the season as the team's third tailback, but last week he rushed for a career-high 252 yards on 37 carries and added three touchdowns to spark a 34-3 win at Kent State. Davis, who had just 316 career rushing yards the previous three seasons, stepped in due to injuries to Garrett Wolfe, the MAC's leading rusher, and A.J. Harris, the league's ninth leading rusher. Davis ran for 205 yards and touchdowns from 2, 4 and 52 yards in the first half alone. The 252 rushing yards by Davis is the seventh highest single game performance in the nation this season. He was the West Division Offensive Player of the Week. By the way, Ball State has the worst run defense in the conference. Northern Illinois 42, Ball State 14. (Aside: Didn't they used to throw the football in this conference?)

Fantasy — Central Michigan will beat Toledo. This isn't an easy pick, because in most of the major categories, these teams are pretty even. They're even 1-2 in the conference in two major categories — scoring defense and rushing defense. They're also both tied for 11th in the nation in turnover margin. But there's one area where the Chippewas are truly deficient — pass defense. They're 10th in the 12 team MAC, allowing 267.3 yards per game. That plays into the hands of the Zips' best weapon, senior quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. He's No. 15 in the nation in pass efficiency with 154.42. Toledo will put the game in Gradkowski's hands and let it fly, thereby keeping their divisional lead. Toledo 31, Central Michigan 28.

Fantasy: Akron will beat Bowling Green, but it comes with a caveat. That's if Bowling Green quarterback Omar Jacobs plays. If Jacobs can't play, then an Akron victory becomes reality. Jacobs left last week's game with a separated left (non- throwing) shoulder and that turned the tables on the Falcons, who then got pounded by Western Michigan 45-14. Jacobs, in case you don't know, is the active career leader in total offense, passing yards per game and passing efficiency. This season he's 12th in total offense (307.86 yards) and 13th in passing efficiency (156.21). Sufficed to say the senior is going to get a lot of love from NFL scouts next spring. But right now the Falcons need him to beat Akron, a team that is third in passing offense and fourth in total defense. If the Falcons have to play that wide-eyed freshman, Anthony Turner, they're in for a long day. Sadly, we probably won't know Jacobs' status until game time. Bowling Green 30, Akron 20 (if Jacobs plays); Akron 19, Bowling Green 16 (if Jacobs doesn't play).

Finally, Kent State (1-6, 0-4 East) will travel to face Western Michigan (4-3, 3-2 West). WMU is the team that beat BG last week, and they'll carry that momentum against KSU. Western Michigan 37, Kent State 20.

Last Week: 5-2.

Mountain West Conference

Friday night's contest between Colorado State (4-3, 3-1) and New Mexico (5-3, 3-2) on ESPN2 has some postseason implications. State is second in the conference, the Lobos are third. Add to that mix the fact that New Mexico can become bowl eligible with a victory. What's the over-under on total offense in this game? 1,100? You should know four teams had 500 or more yards of total offense in the MWC last week, and these were two of them.

New Mexico's DonTrell Moore is screaming for your attention. The senior tailback is enhancing his reputation in the eyes of pro scouts as he's rushed for 968 yards on 203 carries. He's 32 yards away from becoming the sixth player in NCAA history to record 1,000 yards rushing in all four collegiate seasons. The list is part who's who and part who? — Tony Dorsett, Ron Dayne and Cedric Benson are the names you know. North Carolina's Amos Lawrence and New Mexico State's Denvis Manns are the names you probably don't, unless you matriculated in Chapel Hill, N.C., or Las Cruces, N.M. He'll get it this week. The question worth asking is how much more he'll get. CSU's run defense is deal last in the MWC.

On the other side there's CSU quarterback Justin Holland. The Rams like their QBs prolific, and Holland is certainly that. He's thrown for 1,969 yards in seven games, along with 18 touchdowns. His touchdown figure is the most by a CSU QB in the fewest number of games. Former signal-caller Moses Moreno threw 16 scoring passes in 10 games, the next highest mark. He is also on the verge of becoming only the second QB in school history alongside Moreno to throw for 2,000 yards in eight games. The Lobos are a solid team against the pass, but they're not stellar, ranked No. 4 in MWC. It's that classic debate — great running back vs. great quarterback. I'll take the clock-chewing, yard-munching back every time, especially when he's at home. New Mexico 37, Colorado State 30.

Air Force (3-5, 2-4) hosts BYU (3-4, 2-2) at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Both are clinging to hope of becoming bowl eligible, but that will mean little if they can't crack the conference's top three teams. After Saturday, that will be just about impossible for one of them. BYU very much needs this game, and they'll get a little redemption after being Notre Dame's whipping boy last week. BYU 31, Air Force 18.

No. 20 Texas Christian (7-1, 5-0) gets San Diego State (3-5, 2-3) on the road, in a game the Horned Frogs should have no problem with. TCU leads the nation in interceptions, and the MWC in red zone defense. That's the one thing the Aztecs have been pretty good at this year. They're nearly perfect (22 of 24) in the red zone. SDS must avoid a hot start by TCU. The Horned Frogs have outscored opponents 58-10 in the first quarter in their past four games. TCU 31, San Diego State 16.

Record last week: 5-0.

Western Athletic Conference

Welcome to the separation game of the week — Nevada (4-2, 3-0) at Boise State (5-2, 3-0). The two teams, tied for the lead with Fresno State (5-1, 3-0). The loser of the Nevada-Boise State game is in a little trouble when it comes to acquiring one of the WAC's two bowl berths.

The Broncos are led, of course, by quarterback Jared Zabransky, a junior. In the Broncos' freewheeling offense, Zabransky completed 26-of-39 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-21 win over Utah State. For that, he earned the WAC Offensive Player of the Week. He is third in the conference in passing yards with 220 per game. The Broncos also had the WAC Defensive Player of the Week in linebacker Chris Barrios, who had 11 tackles and a sack.

Nevada was off last week, but they have the league's top rusher in B.J. Mitchell, averaging just over 100 yards per game. New Mexico also has quarterback Jeff Rowe, who is second in the conference in passing with 259 yards per game. Nevada has won its last three games. But two numbers to be aware of — 29 and 42. Twenty-nine is the number of consecutive conference games won by Boise State. The second is the number of home games, out of 43, the Broncos have won, including 22 straight. This one's on the smurf turf, and this one's going the Broncos' way. Boise State 27, Nevada 20.

Fresno State will try to remain in a share of the lead against Hawai'i (3-4, 3-2), which as usual is going to throw the ball around like it's a sandlot game. Hawai'i quarterback Colt Brennan leads the conference in passing with 350 yards per game. What the Bulldogs have is a solid rushing attack that can control the clock, as Wendell Mathis and Bryson Sumlin each have seven career 100-yard rushing games, tops in the league. They each rushed for 105 yards against New Mexico State in a 37-7 win. That's about the only way to beat Hawai'i — keep Brennan off the field. But, just for good measure, the Bulldogs have the best pass defense in the league, giving up 190 yards per game. That'll be enough to slow down Brennan and keep the Bulldogs undefeated. Fresno State 33, Hawaii 27.

Louisiana Tech (3-3, 2-1) returns to WAC play after drilling North Texas to face San Jose State (1-6, 0-4). The Bulldogs should have no problem dispatching of the Spartans, and failure to do so means dismissal from the conference race. Louisiana Tech 33, San Jose State 14.

Idaho (1-6, 1-3) travels to Las Cruces, N.M. to play New Mexico State (0-7, 0-3). NMSU is searching for its first win of the season, plus its first win in WAC play since leaving the Sun Belt Conference. New Mexico State 23, Idaho 19.

Utah State (2-4, 1-3) travels to Tuscaloosa, Ala., to face undefeated and No. 5 Alabama. Hope it's worth the money for the Aggies. Alabama 59, Utah State 3.

Record last week: 4-0.

Sun Belt Conference

Three Saturday games dot the SBC schedule this weekend. As I said earlier this week, just one has any real conference title implications.

Louisiana-Monroe is in the driver's seat (3-4, 3-0), and the Indians already have wins over Arkansas State and Troy, two of the three teams in hot pursuit (North Texas is the other).

Troy (3-4, 2-1 SBC) travels to Lafayette, La., to face Louisiana-Lafayette (2-5, 1-2). Since Troy has already lost to front-running Louisiana-Monroe (which is enjoying a rare two-week break from game action), so the Trojans must stay the course and hope to get some help from someone in the league to return to Lafayette later this year for the New Orleans Bowl (the game is being moved there from the New Orleans Superdome). This game is simple — run or stop the run. La.-La. is the conference's No. 1 rushing team (222 yards per game), while Troy is the league's No. 2 run defense (135.5 ypg). The Ragin' Cajuns run two backs at you in Tyrell Fenroy (69.1 ypg) and Mic Desormeaux (61.2 ypg). They're ranked No. 4 and No. 5 in the league. Watch Troy's Johnny Faulk, a junior defensive back who is second in the SBC in tackles for loss with nine for 46 yards. In the end, Troy has more to play for. Troy 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 20.

Middle Tennessee (2-04, 1-2) plays out the string with a trip to Miami to face Florida International (1-5, 0-3). MT head coach Andy McCollum's job might be on the line, depending on your expectations. A losing season in 2005 would be the Blue Raiders' fourth straight under McCollum. Sure, they beat Vanderbilt earlier this season, but it's Vandy. I don't care how well they started. The problem isn't defense. The Blue Raiders have the best scoring defense in the league. The problem is offense. They're scoring fewer points (13.8 ppg) than they're allowing (16.5), and that's never a recipe for success. FIU has a solid quarterback in junior Josh Padrick, who is tossing a league-best 218.7 yards per game and is second in total offense. He's prone to interceptions, and I think MT's defense will exploit that. Middle Tennessee 23, FIU 17

And, North Texas (2-4, 2-1) travels to Baton Rouge, La., for a non- conference tilt with LSU. This game was supposed to be the season opener for the Mean Green, before Hurricane Katrina forced its postponement. The Mean Green have no chance in this game. Their only focus should be staying healthy. These kinds of "money games" may be good for the wallet, but they can be a beating. The Mean Green still has a meeting with La.-Monroe in mid-November, and that could be for the conference title and New Orleans Bowl berth. No need in getting running backs Patrick Cobbs or Jamario Thomas injured now. LSU 52, North Texas 10.

Record last week: 3-0.

Conference USA

Another one of those weeks where there's no pressing drama. But as close as both divisions are right now, no one wants to lose ground. Texas-El Paso (5-1, 3-1 West) has the chance to become the first bowl- eligible team out of Conference USA as they face Rice (0-6, 0-3), which has a national-worst 12-game losing streak. Do we even need to entertain the notion that the Owls have a chance in this game? I like Rice coach Ken Hatfield's folksy charm, but his time in Owl country may be running out. The Miners will run away by halftime. UTEP 47, Rice 7.

Here's a key game for Central Florida (4-3, 3-1), tied for the East Division lead with Southern Mississippi (4-2, 3-1). The Golden Knights travel to East Carolina (3-4, 2-2). The Pirates' postseason hopes took a hit last week with a loss to Memphis. That dropped the Pirates out of the first-place tie. They would love nothing better than to do the same to the Golden Knights, who have emerged from their putrid 17-game losing streak to win four of their last five games. I'd keep an eye on two skill guys in this game. ECU's Aundrae Allison leads the conference in catches per game with 8.0, and UCF's Mike Walker is third with 6.6. In the end, I think UCF steals a close on on the road. UCF 23, ECU 19.

Southern Miss, meanwhile, is at North Carolina State in a non-conference game. This one's on ESPNU at noon eastern if you're up to it. If you are, you'll get to see senior QB Dustin Almond, one of the best passers in C-USA. He's got 14 this season, a career high, and is playing up to head coach Jeff Bower's expectations. But that won't earn a win over the Wolfpack, though it will be close. N.C. State 31, Southern Miss 27.

Marshall (3-4, 2-2 East) still has bowl aspirations as they travel to face Tulane (2-4, 1-3 West) this week. The Green Wave, homeless because of Katrina, are playing as the home team in Mobile, Ala. This the Green Wave's fifth "home game" this season, all at different sites (Shreveport, Baton Rogue, Lafayette and Ruston, La., and Mobile). That's a story I hope to get into later this season, because it bears telling. The grind has got to be getting to the Green Wave. Marshall must slow down QB Lester Ricard, who threw for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. They won't. Tulane 27, Marshall 24.

And, on Tuesday, Alabama-Birmingham (3-4,. 1-3 East) gets some face time on ESPN2 when it travels to the Liberty Bowl to face Memphis (4-3, 3-2 East). Any hope of beating Memphis lies in stopping — or at least slowing down — senior running back DeAngelo Williams, who is now No. 4 on the NCAA's career list for all-purpose yards. Something tells me the Blazers are going to get burned for Williams' fifth 200-yard game this season. Memphis 36, UAB 27. (Special prediction — Williams has 35 carries for 225 yards, 3 scores).

Record: 4-2.

Did I say Astros in seven? I meant White Sox in four. Silly me.