College Football National Championship Futures Print E-mail
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Written by The Guy Next Door    Friday, 28 October 2005
As we approach week nine of the College Football season I think we should take a shot at the future.   I like to think of this time of year as the regrouping point of the season.  I'm sure it's safe to say that the majority of you had either USC or Texas as one of your National Championship game participants.  It's not crazy to say that many people around the country had both.  Let's be honest with each other right now, it's never that easy and we all know it. 

As we approach week nine of the College Football season I think we should take a shot at the future.   I like to think of this time of year as the regrouping point of the season.  I'm sure it's safe to say that the majority of you had either USC or Texas as one of your National Championship game participants.  It's not crazy to say that many people around the country had both.  Let's be honest with each other right now, it's never that easy and we all know it. 

For all of you who put a few greenbacks on the Texas Longhorns to win the National Title, I think you will still have action on the night of January 4th.  After putting a licking on Texas Tech this past Saturday, it looks as though the Longhorns have a clear path to the title game.  Texas' schedule the rest of the way shapes up like this.  At Oklahoma State, at Baylor, home to Kansas and the regular season finale at Texas A&M.  If they were to get tripped up in any of those contests it would be a monster upset.  Texas will be giving double digitsin all of those games.  They would then have to play in the Big 12 Championship game against an inferior opponent.  They already put Colorado in their place a couple of weeks ago.  Nebraska? Missouri? Puhleezz!  Pencil Texas in to play in the Rose Bowl.  The question to be asked is who will they play?
    
USC, USC, USC, I've been hearing it for three years.  Folks, there's a reason the games are played.  For as machine like as everyone makes this team out to be
(and they are a special team) they are human and they have been vulnerable a few times already this year.  They've come back from several halftime deficits and we all saw that they were a sunken ship in South Bend two weeks ago.  USC has a distinct advantage in this BCS race that the stuffy white shirts on ESPN don't realize until it hits them in the head.  They are now the only legitimate team left, that doesn't have to play in a conference championship game.  Now that the ACC will have a title game, they join the SEC and the Big 12 as heavyweight conferences that have an extra game.  Big 10 (11) we're waiting? 
    
Regardless, USC has five games left and I'm telling any of you who will listen, that they will get tripped up in one of them.  No team has ever won three straight National Championships because it's just too difficult, and it won't happen this year either.  Our favorite Saturday morning cartoon character, Lee Corso, has been telling us for two months that the Trojans will go down November 12th at California. I sure hope so, but come on Lee, Cal just got beat at home by Washington State.

USC ends the season with home games against Fresno State and UCLA.  One of those games is when it will happen, and that's when we'll look like geniuses.  USC is currently -220 to win the roses.  Anyone who wants to be a city park pigeon and ride the Trojan horse, good luck, and it could very well work out for you.  You're going to have to get a life preserver, though,  because the rest of us on this ship will be sailing.
    
I would have to say that Texas is the pick to win it all.  They have everything in place for a smooth ride to Pasadena.  Big time offense, swarming defense and they
have playmakers all over the field.  There is nobody left on their schedule that is capable of beating them.  They'll be playing in the last bowl of the season, but at +250, let's look for some value elsewhere.  Hey, we're looking to buy a Corvette in the spring not a Ford sedan. I like Virginia Tech a lot at +600, but they haven't even come close to playing the toughest teams on their schedule.  Boston College on Thursday, Miami (Fla), and a rivalry game against Virginia.  Not to mention the inaugural ACC title game, most likely against Florida State.  If the Hokies can beat both the Hurricanes and Seminoles in the same season, wow, that would be impressive.  It won't happen though.  Frank Beamer will get his championship one of these days, it just won't be this year. 
    
Georgia can be had on the board at +1500 for those of you with some Bulldog in your blood.  Georgia is like a pace setting, thoroughbred racehorse.  Early speed and then fades in the stretch.  Each and every year this team takes an undefeated record into November, only to falter before the games become serious.  This season won't be any different.  Georgia always has a great defense and great defensive players that cash in on NFL draft day.  Boss and Champ Bailey, David Pollock and Richard Seymour to name a few.  Unlike the NFL, though, defense alone doesn't win college championships.  Aside from putting up 48 points against an overmatched Boise State team in week one and 44 against Louisiana Monroe, they just don't have the offense
to play with the big boys.  Let's not forget that quarterback D.J. Shockley was injured on Saturday in a game that Arkansas took deep into the 4th quarter in Athens.  When he'll return is uncertain.  O.K. let's cross this one off, Florida is a 4 point favorite over the 'Dawgs this week at a neutral site.  Need I say more? 
    
Another price being dangled in front of us is Alabama at +1800.  This one should really be off of our board.  For those of you who fired on my weekly play Saturday, I feel your pain.  We were all over that one and got robbed. For the newcomers to this column, we had a strong play on Tennessee +3 down at Alabama.  With the score 3-3 at the 4:00 mark, we were driving in the redzone, when a very costly fumble went through the end zone for a touchback.  Alabama then marched down the field and kicked a game winning field goal for a 6-3 final.  For all the bandwagon pigeons out there that had Alabama, you got lucky to push.  For all the guys next door, we'll get 'em this week.
    
Alabama will be a distant memory very soon.  This week they host Utah State, before a road game at Mississippi State (don't think for a minute Sylvester Croom wouldn't like to knock off his alma matre).  The Crimson end the season at home against LSU and then the traditional finale against Auburn.  And yes, if still alive, they'll have to beat the best from the SEC East in the Georgia Dome on December 3rd.   I'm happy for the 'Bama fans this year.  They appreciate their football and deserve some excitement from the home squad. However, if they think their going to run the table and go undefeated, they are sadly mistaken.  I see them losing twice before it's all said and done.  Don't waste your time or your bankroll.
    
The team to take a shot with as a possible National Champion is the UCLA Bruins at +2000.  Two weeks ago, at Washington State, the Bruins overcame a halftime deficit to force overtime before winning the game 44-41.  Every great team has a season defining game, and for UCLA, that nail biter up in Pullman was it.  It was their first win there since 1993.  Last week, hosting Oregon State, was your run of the mill 23 point thrashing of the Beavers.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of Pac-10 football, but folks, at 7-0 this team has to be taken seriously.  In his 3rd year, Karl Dorrell has put together a pretty solid team lead by the Drew's.  Senior quarterback Drew Olson has been a big surprise. After waiting for his chance, he has more than taken advantage of the opportunity.  Against Oregon State, he threw for a school record 6 touchdowns. On the season, he's had 21 passes find their way into the end zone while only throwing 3 interceptions.  Let me ask you this question.  Who is the Pac-10 leader in quarterback rating?  Everyone's All American Matt Leinart?  Nope! At this point in the season that honor goes to the other quarterback in SouthernCalifornia, with a 166.5 rating. 
    
This team can't be talked about without mentioning junior running back/punt returner Maurice Drew.  Believe me, you'll be hearing this name for many years to come.  He's the 2nd most explosive player in California. (Reggie Bush is Reggie Bush)  He leads the entire country in punt returns, averaging 30.85 per attempt, having scored on runs of 66, 72, and 81. He also ranks 4th nationally in all-purpose yards at 185.6 per game. 
    
UCLA's schedule plays out like this: at Stanford, at Arizona, home to Arizona State and the regular season finale at USC.  Obviously, I believe UCLA will be 10-0 when they take on the Trojans, and I wouldn't have taken you this far if I didn't think they could win the game.  In the last decade, some crazy things have happened on this last day of the regular season.  Many people (including myself) have had to make quick changes to their January travel plans after the first Saturday in December.  This year will be no different.  Playing 20 minutes down the street doesn't count as a road game in my book and thus I don't feel USC has much of an advantage.  They both play on grass and hey, it's Southern California, weather will not be an issue.  So if UCLA can upset USC it will set up a Texas V.S. UCLA National Championship game.  If that were to happen, which ticket would you rather have in your pocket, $100 to win $250 on the Longhorns?  Or $100 to win $2000 on the Bruins?  There is no doubt in my mind that anyone reading this column has made a crazier bet than this. Look at it this way, how many of you wish you had a winning ticket on Giacomo at 50-1 in the Derby this year?  We've got to take some shots once in a while my friends.  This one makes sense. 

One more question for you all.

This years Championship Game will be played at the Rose Bowl.  What team plays their home games there?   

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