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Big Ten - Week 3 games, Week 2 wrap-up |
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Monday, 13 June 2005 |
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After an up-and-down Saturday, the Big Ten enters its
final weekend of non-conference games. The conference posted a 7-4
record straight up last week, with all losses coming to BCS teams
(Notre Dame, Boston College, Arizona State, and UCLA). Let's take a
look at this week's schedule, starting with the most intriguing game:
Game of the Week: Ohio State at NC State
Ohio State - Last week: Beat Marshall, 24-21 - This week: at NC State
Kicker
Mike Nugent came through yet again for the Buckeyes, making a
game-winning 55-yard field goal as time expired. QB Justin Zwick looked
improved from Week 1, connecting on several deep balls and finishing
with 3 TD passes. This week OSU travels to NC State, where the Wolfpack
will look to avenge their triple-overtime loss from last season. That
might seem too big of a task without Philip Rivers at QB, but NC State
still has star RB T.A. McLendon, who looks to be probable after
straining a hamstring a few weeks ago. If healthy, the key matchup will
be McLendon against the OSU linebackers. Either way, look for OSU to
pressure new Wolfpack QB Jay Davis. This is a tough game to call,
because OSU has been excellent against non-conference opponents under
Jim Tressel. However, the vast majority of those games came at Ohio
Stadium, and this is the first real non-conference road test for the
Buckeyes since a loss at UCLA in 2001. I expect the game to be close,
though, and we all know that OSU wins those games.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, NC State 24
Michigan State - Last week: Beat Central Michigan, 24-7 - This week: Notre Dame
Although
the Spartans appear to have a three-headed QB controversy on their
hands, they will have the intangibles on their side this week: A night
game on national TV, a wild crowd, and a Notre Dame team that may be
emotionally drained after beating Michigan on Saturday. QB Stephen
Reaves will get the start, while many (if not most) Spartan fans hope
to see heir apparent Drew Stanton take over the role as soon as
possible. This will be a good measuring stick for the Spartans. The
Irish have had serious trouble with MSU over the last decade, and we
all saw how well they handled a hostile environment two weeks ago at
BYU. However, I think MSU simply doesn't have the athletes that they've
had in previous years, and the untimely mistakes and undisciplined play
that have plagued them under John L. Smith will come back to haunt them
in this one.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 21
Iowa - Last week: Beat Iowa State, 17-10 - This week: at Arizona State
In
a lackluster game against Iowa State, Iowa's defense was the bright
spot. They were able to get good pressure on the Cyclones' QBs, and
that will have to continue this week. Once again, QB Drew Tate suffered
from dehydration problems, and is probably thankful that the game in
the desert this weekend is at night. I think this game simply comes
down to Arizona State's strength (offense) against Iowa's strength
(defense). The edge goes to the home team here. If there is a weak link
in Iowa's defense, it is the secondary, and I expect Sun Devils QB
Andrew Walter to make just enough big plays to pull out the win.
Prediction: Arizona State 28, Iowa 20
Michigan - Last week: Lost at Notre Dame, 28-20 - This week: San Diego State
Lloyd
Carr's ultra-conservative game plan came back to haunt the Wolverines
in the second half at Notre Dame. A few costly turnovers, including the
all-too-familiar blocked punt, had Michigan fans shaking their heads
after another loss in South Bend. True freshman QB Chad Henne played
admirably, but clearly needs to work on his timing and reads. More than
anything, maybe, Michigan needs to get its running game back in gear.
That may be a tough task against an Aztec team that ranked 8th last
year in total defense, and returns one of the best groups of
linebackers in the country. Expect Carr to pound the ball up the
middle, regardless of whether it actually works.
Prediction: Michigan 27, San Diego State 14
Minnesota - Last week: Beat Illinois State, 37-21 - This week: at Colorado State
Similar
to Ohio State, this is Minnesota's first decent non-conference road
test in recent memory. However, Colorado State isn't the same team it
was over the past few years, and has gotten off to an 0-2 start, albeit
against quality competition (Colorado, USC). The Rams' passing offense
is not nearly as developed as the Gophers' rushing attack, so I'll take
Minnesota in a close one.
Prediction: Minnesota 31, Colorado State 27
Wisconsin - Last week: Beat UNLV, 18-3 - This week: at Arizona
The
loss of RB Anthony Davis appears to have hindered the Wisconsin offense
a bit, but the defense has been the key, giving up only 9 points in the
first two games. Arizona had its "let's pull off an upset game" last
week, and failed to do so against Utah. Big Ten teams have struggled
with road trips to Pac-10 country in the past, but the talent gap in
this game is too wide.
Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Arizona 17
Indiana - Last week: Beat Oregon, 30-24 - This week: at Kentucky
The
surprise of the week came in Eugene, Oregon, where Indiana came in,
forced a ton of turnovers, and held on for the win against the Ducks.
It was a huge win for the Hoosiers, and if they play up to their
potential, they could be undefeated on October 2nd, when Michigan rolls
into town. The fact that Kentucky brings one of its weakest teams in
recent memory into this game will help the Hoosiers keep the Rose Bowl
dream alive.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Kentucky 23
Northwestern - Last week: Lost to Arizona State, 30-21 - This week: Kansas
The
Wildcats put up a valiant effort against the Sun Devils, and were in
the game the entire 4 quarters. After two straight tough losses, it
will be hard for NU to put up a similar fight against a much-improved
Kansas team (a team that could win the Big 12 North, since all the
other teams are terrible).
Prediction: Kansas 34, Northwestern 24
Penn State - Last week: Lost to Boston College - This week: Central Florida
The
sweet dreams of PSU fans came to a quick halt last week at Boston
College. It's amazing how one team can look so good on offense one
week, then so lousy the next. No reason to give up on the season yet,
as a win this Saturday and an upset of Wisconsin or Minnesota in the
coming weeks will put the program back on track.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Central Florida 21
Illinois - Last week: Lost to UCLA, 35-17 - This week: Western Michigan
After
laying an egg in an important game last week (in terms of pride, season
expectations, and TV exposure), the Illini had better get their act
together before a brutal run in the Big Ten over the next five weeks
(including Purdue, at Wisconsin, Michigan, and at Minnesota).
Prediction: Illinois 38, Western Michigan 21
Purdue - Last week: Beat Ball State 59-7 - This week: Bye
Over
the past two weeks, Purdue has become the flavor of the month. They win
by 51, then 52. Kyle Orton is a Heisman frontrunner. And many fans and
prognosticators are thinking Big Ten Championship. If they can put up a
53-point win over Bye, I'm sold. |
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Last Updated ( Friday, 29 July 2005 )
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