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Moneyline Pick of the Week |
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Monday, 13 June 2005 |
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Contrarian Picks is back again after a full 200+
days with no college football action. With the first week of games now
on the horizon, I'll take a quick look at the MoneyLines and break down
what I think looks good and why.
As always, if you are unfamiliar with what a Contrarian/MoneyLine
pick is, or wonder why you might want to bet one, please take a look at
this article as a primer:
Contrarian Betting - Calling the Dog on the MoneylineHere's what we have on the moneyline as of my writing this article on Thursday night:
New Mexico +135
Rutgers +200
Vandy +140
Tulsa +160
CSU +180
Duke +250
Memphis +145
Tulane +230
BYU +175
Kentucky +310
Rice +150
Fresno State +125
Not a real pretty lot, but I suppose I could find a few worth a look... so of the above, here's what I might consider:
New Mexico
Rutgers
Memphis
Fresno State
And in all honesty, that is all I care for of what is currently on the
board. As the season progresses and we get to know our "dogs" a bit
better we can get a little more speculative, but to begin the season
we'll play it a shade more conservative than usual....
So of the four above... here's my take on our teams...
New Mexico gets a bit of a blessing playing a Wazzou team that returns
just six starters and may be overlooking a small conference foe while
the Big Twelve and Colorado loom on the horizon Our in house numbers
actually call for a one point UNM victory, but with the line only at
+135 I'm not sure I really want to surrender the three points that this
game has jumped to.
Rutgers played a great first half of ball last year against MSU. They
lead midway through the second 21-14 and seemed to be in control.... But
the wheels came off and they fell apart losing 44-28. This Rutgers team
should be a shade better than last year with 16 starters back and with
a slight home field edge and a MSU squad breaking in a new QB I think
they have a shot.
Unlike Rutgers, Memphis got the job done last year and handed
Mississippi a 44-34 loss and they have the talent to do it again. This
year the Rebs have a new QB to break in and also only have four
starters back on a defense that will be charged with containing the
prolific pass and catch Memphis offense. I like this one a good deal
but would like to see if we couldn't find the number a shade higher
(160 or so) to make it a definite wager.
Finally Fresno State... they ‘Dogs have knocked off a few PAC Ten teams
over the last few years so don't expect them to fear the Huskies. With
only 12 starters back Washington may be a little slow out of the gate,
but with a line at only 125 I cannot see this even being worth the
risk.
So with that succinct analysis, here's the call:
Against the Line Contrarian Picks calls Memphis +145 as our moneyline pick of the week. (Though you should definitely do a bit more searching to see if you can find a bit bigger number here...) The line on this game is up to +160 on Sportsbook.com and may be higher elsewhere. Definitely worth a look at this level. |
