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Free Moneyline Pick of The Week |
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Monday, 13 June 2005 |
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After starting the season out with a solid +160
on Memphis last week, Contrarian Picks is back this week to break down
the college football moneylines and look at what might be of value.
As always, if you are unfamiliar with what a Contrarian/MoneyLine
pick is, or wonder why you might want to bet one, please take a look at
this article as a primer:
Contrarian Betting - Calling the Dog on the MoneylineHere's what we have on the moneyline as of my writing this article on Friday morning:
Oregon St +250
Miss St +400
BC +140
BYU +160
S Carolina +250
Cincinnati +150
Toledo +135
Fresno St +450
GT +220
Wyoming +350
New Mexico +150
Arkansas +350
MTSU +210
FAU +210
Idaho +350
Definitely a good deal better selection than last week, and here are my initial favorites:
Oregon St
BC
S Carolina
Fresno St
Arkansas
FAU
Oregon State had a huge game last week against LSU and proved
they can play wih anyone in the nation. This week, they may definitely
come out flat in the second game of the road trip, but if they play
with any heart at all they have the talent to topple BSU (who
coincidentally has a terrible SU and ATS record against the PAC Ten.)
BC played a weak MAC team in Ball State last week and squeaked
out a victory in a defensive tilt. Penn State looked like one of the
national's top offenses trouncing the Akron Zips. That said, one game
does not a season make and I'm not entirely sold on PSU. BC looks good
to me here, but I'll probably pass as some of the other lines I like
offer a good deal greater value.
S Carolina looked impressive in their pummeling of Vandy last
week while UGA had some issues putting away 1AA Georgia Southern. The
game is at USC, and with Holtz's revamped Gamecock team I think a win
is very possible. That said, I'd like to see this line around 300 or so
before laying my money down.
Fresno St toppled another "Big Dog" last week felling the
Washington Huskies and this week they set their sites on K-State. The
Wildcats struggled with errors last week and despit racking up around
500 yards of total offense, they could barely muster enough points to
knock off W Kentucky. The +450 makes this game look great even in the
face of the facts that part of FSUs win can be attributed to an
opportunistic defense that returned two INTs for TDS, and that KSU
repeatedly squandered scoring opportunities last week.
Arkansas picked off the Longhorns as Dogs last year and there is
no real reason they couldn't do it again. UT trounced little SBC
competition UNT last week, but playing the SEC at the SEC is a whole
different story.
Florida Atlantic shocked the college football world last weekend
opening their inaugural 1A campaign with a victory over Hawaii. This
week., against an Mean Gree team that was just throttled against Texas,
FAU looks to repeat the feat. We see no reason why they cannot win, and
the 210 line is enough to make it a serious consideration.
So that's it for what I like. That noted, here's the call:
Against the Line Contrarian Picks calls Fresno State +450 as our moneyline pick of the week.
(I realize this is probably not the "best" pick on the board of likely
winners, but with FSUs past record of whooping the Big Boys and with a
line as juicy as 450 we're going out on a limb this week and taking a
bit of a gamble.) |
